Estimated ethanol needs in Switzerland

Factors influencing total ethanol volume

Alcosuisse is convinced that bioethanol fuel has a future in our country. However, the total volume we can expect to see on the market by 2010-12 will depend on several factors, including:

• petrol prices
• developments in the petrol standard, i.e. whether or not there will be a changeover to essEnce10 (10% ethanol) for all vehicles
• the price of ethanol fuel, which itself will depend on the cost  of feedstocks, the proportion of domestic production to imports, and the international situation
• the creation of tools to ensure the sustainability of ethanol produced or distributed in Switzerland
• the attitude of the oil industry
• the range of FFVs (E85) on the market

Ethanol fuel requirements 2010-12

Generally, our estimates are based on the following assumptions:

• petrol will remain at a much higher price than tax exempt ethanol
• the Ordinance on Taxation of Mineral Oils will require bioethanol sold in Switzerland to comply with recognised environmental and social criteria.

The product’s image will be positive. Considering the competitive price of Swiss and imported products, petroleum distributors will use ethanol fuel more widely. The difference between the two scenarios lies in development of the standard for 5% or 10% bioethanol blends in conventional petrol, and how fast E85 can be developed.

Estimates of total biofuel requirements around 2010-12

The arrival of second generation ethanol will increase global ethanol volumes and improve the product’s image, although we think that a more realistic time horizon for this would be 2012-15.